The #1 predictor of a 90 mph fastball isn’t in your arm.
It’s not your long toss.
It’s not your bullpen count.
It’s not your weighted ball program.
It’s not even your vertical jump.
In a database of 1,500 professional pitcher evaluations, the single strongest predictor of fastball velocity is a test you can run in your driveway tonight with a tape measure.
The standing broad jump.
Feature importance: 0.575 — higher than grip strength, higher than vertical jump, higher than total body strength, higher than 10-yard sprint.
Here’s what the numbers actually say 👇
📏 80” broad jump → 75 mph ceiling
📏 88” broad jump → 80 mph ceiling
📏 96” broad jump → 85 mph ceiling
📏 102” broad jump → 90 mph ceiling
📏 110” broad jump → 95 mph ceiling
A 2018 PRP Baseball study backed it up: 24 of 28 pitchers who cleared 100” threw 80 mph. Sakurai et al. (2023) found fastball velocity correlates r=0.65 with drive-leg ground reaction force.
Translation: velocity isn’t thrown by the arm.
It’s launched by the ground.
So the real question isn’t how hard your kid throws today.
It’s how hard he’s CAPABLE of throwing — and what’s standing in the way.
Find out in 60 seconds.
Free. No credit card. Uses the exact same XGBoost model that evaluates MLB prospects, trained on 1,500 professional evaluations:
🔗
topvelocity.org/velocity-cal…
(link also in bio)
Drop a 🎯 in the comments if you’re going to measure tonight.
Tag a baseball dad who needs to see this.
— Brent Pourciau, M.S. Kinesiology, PhD Health Sciences
20 years. 10,000 athletes. 100 MLB draft picks.
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