Freedom Maximalist. Builder, Investor, Tinkerer.
Joined December 2008
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319 Photos and videos
Compounding is the eighth wonder.
Compound in all areas of your life.
Jun 13
“Money makes money. And the money that money makes, makes money.”
— Benjamin Franklin
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Jun 14
CHINA ELIMINATES 12,000 ‘OBSOLETE’ UNIVERSITY DEGREES IN PUSH TO PREPARE FOR THE AI ERA
CHINESE UNIVERSITIES SCRAP 12,000 DEGREE PROGRAMS AS AI RESHAPES JOB MARKET DEMANDS
Community note
Partly misleading. China cut ~12,200 degree programs gradually over 4 years (2021–2025), not in a single push. ~10,200 new programs were added simultaneously. Youth unemployment — not just AI — was the primary driver per China's Ministry of Education.
scmp.com/economy/china-…
en.sedaily.com/international/…
chinascope.org/archives/40454
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Jun 13
Charlie Munger: "There will never be any shortage of good people in the world. All you've got to do is seek them out and get as many of them as possible into your life — and keep the rest the hell out."
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To access Mythos -
You need permission from the US gov, Anthropic, presumably Claude itself.
And you must be willing to pay and negotiate perhaps at significant costs.
AI wars officially entered the next phase.
Jun 13
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees.
The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance.
Access to all other Claude models is not affected.
We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible.
Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Jun 11
The pricing model determines what you build. Charge for outcomes and you're forced to invest in software that compounds. Charge for time and you never will. Pricing isn't downstream of the product. It IS the product decision.
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Jun 11
Remember the days where we used GPT-5 and Sonnet 4 on $20/month plans and it felt nearly unlimited?
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Jun 10
So I gave Fable 5 the watchmaker benchmark: a full Swiss lever movement in Three.js. Real gear ratios (18,000 bph), working escapement, breathing hairspring — and the hands tell actual time. It verified its own work with vision, in a loop, until done. ⌚
Jun 9
Fable has done AGI-level job on on the Boeing 747 benchmark... it's almost scary 👀
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“If you want to be successful, you must respect one rule – never lie to yourself.”
— Paulo Coelho
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The faster you move in space, the slower you move in time.
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Jun 2
There are a lot of smart people at Google.
They have concluded that issuing stock at a 2.5% earnings yield is cheaper capital than issuing 30Y bonds at 5.5-6.0%.
Adjust your asset allocation accordingly.
Jun 2
Oppenheimer brings out an interesting point here. If $GOOGL that prints massive FCF is tapping equity markets for $80B it's because credit is drying up. The private credit canary in the coal mine just died. The fact that their raise includes a massive $40B ATM and a $10B private placement to Berkshire Hathaway shows exactly how desperate the hunt for liquidity is becoming.
So who else is very exposed to the credit markets? $ORCL would be the first to come in mind, right? Name has rallied a ton here and suddenly looks like all the financing issues they have are forgotten. Their debt to equity is still over 5x.
$META is relentless in irrational spending. This might force Zucc to reevaluate his options here? Upgraded by Arete today btw.
Who needs to borrow a ton to keep the lights on? $EQIX and $DLR come to mind, 200MW datacenter costs 8 billion, certainly a hefty amount. But the biggest one of them all is none other than $CRWV, that rallied on $DELL yesterday, yet carries $21B of debt, including $8.5B delayed-draw term loan backed by GPUs.
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True
The thing nobody tells you about exponential change is that it feels like nothing is happening right up until the moment everything happens at once.
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May 30
One of the hardest pills to swallow is being in your 40s and realizing the decades you spent climbing the corporate ladder were a waste.
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May 28
Dubai: 36°C
Riyadh: 38°C
Doha: 37°C
Meanwhile in India:
Delhi: 45°C
Nagpur: 46°C
Jaipur: 44°C
Desert cities are now cooler than many Indian cities.
This is not just climate change.
It is also years of poor urban planning, endless concrete expansion, disappearing trees, and zero focus on livable cities.
And still 18% GST on ACs.
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Exactly right. The bottleneck has never been compute or capital. Its taste and judgment about what humans actually want. Infinite compute just makes the great founders faster and the confused ones more confused. x.com/dflieb/status/20601962…
May 29
Thought experiment: if every company suddenly had infinite free compute, what new products would emerge?
My take: with very few exceptions, not much would change. The bottleneck is figuring out what people want, and it’s not so easy to apply compute to solve that.
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May 28
A day in the life of a VC in 2026:
9am: Board meeting. My main value-add is aggressively pushing for Anthropic/OpenAI usage in non-engineering functions. Briefly ponder how I became an SDR for foundation model companies.
1pm: Lunch with another VC. We discuss how startups can find "blue ocean" away Anthropic/OpenAI. We conclude we should probably just invest the rest of our funds directly into Anthropic/OpenAI.
3pm: Pitch meeting. Me: "Do you run on Anthropic or OpenAI?" Founder: "Both." Debating internally whether a company reselling Anthropic/OpenAI with a 10% gross margin is a good investment but hey, at least they're in the "token flow".
4:30pm: Deep due diligence. I ask Claude if it plans to build this exact startup natively in its next release. Same to ChatGPT. They both say yes. I pass on the deal.
6pm: Urgent call from a portco CTO: "We need an intro to upgrade our Anthropic tier!" I immediately agree to help them spend more of the venture dollars we just invested in them, on Anthropic.
8pm: Brainstorming next guests for the podcast. Thinking I should probably just try to get some folks from Anthropic and OpenAI.
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May 28
Palantir knows everything.
The founder of Palantir is fleeing the country.
May 28
Peter Thiel has temporarily relocated his family to Argentina, enrolled his children in school there, and bought property, partly due to Thiel’s concerns about the United States’ future, per NYT.
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May 27
Wow. It looks like the @XiaomiMiMo v2.5 model is insanely good value :O
(Price for each prompt shown after each answer. Context includes >40k tool descriptions, system prompt, skills, etc.)
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