Postdoc at @arc_mpib @mpib_berlin, soon Assistant Professor at UPF

Joined May 2016
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Had an absolute blast to share this for the first time 🔥 More results to come. This is a collaborative effort of course, so shoutout to @RalfKurvers @stefanmherzog @Mehdi_Moussaid & Ralph Hertwig at @arc_mpib
Replying to @byrd_nick
Now @officialberger asks "When to Stop the Crowd?" "dynamic rules [about when to stop adding raters to crowd/aggregator] match the performance of widely-used *static* aggregation mechanisms [but] with fewer raters." N = 43k Implications for efficiency of aggregation.
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Julian Berger retweeted
I wonder how long this complementary phase will last.
GPT reviewer "scores above each paper's top-rated human reviewer" but AI review agents "overlap far more than humans do...and exhibit 16 recurring weaknesses humans do not share..." Results "position current AI reviewers as complements to, not substitutes for, human reviewers."
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GPT reviewer "scores above each paper's top-rated human reviewer" but AI review agents "overlap far more than humans do...and exhibit 16 recurring weaknesses humans do not share..." Results "position current AI reviewers as complements to, not substitutes for, human reviewers."
Seems GPT-5.2 reaches expert level in peer review: 45 scientists took 469 hours evaluating human & AI reviews on 82 papers. "Surprisingly, current AI reviewers are competitive even with the top-rated reviewers in Nature’s official peer review..." though not without weaknesses.
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Can you boost your AI review scores by asking an LLM to rewrite your paper? Yes! We call it paper laundering Our @icmlconf spotlight paper argues current AI reviewers aren't ready to automate peer review, and outlines what a science of peer review automation should look like🧵👇
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It's hype time. We built a platform where ML models compete to predict future performance of Hyperliquid perps. Interactive scores, real-time leaderboards, a meta-model ensemble, AI agent integration, and... a flight simulator.
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23 Oct 2025
🚨 New publication: How to improve conceptual clarity in psychological science? Thrilled to see this article with Rui Mata out. We discuss how LLMs can be leveraged to map, clarify, and generate psychological measures and constructs. Open access article: doi.org/10.1177/096372142513…
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Is AI on track to match top human forecasters at predicting the future? Today, FRI is releasing an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark that tracks how accurate LLMs are at forecasting real-world events. A trend extrapolation of our results suggests LLMs will reach superforecaster-level forecasting performance around a year from now. Here’s what you need to know: 🧵
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Brilliant student Sonali Sharma came to me with a question. If patients are using AI to answer their medical questions, are they being adequately warned by AI systems that it cannot provide medical advice? What we found surprised us!
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TabM now has a Python package! TabM is a simple and powerful DL architecture for tabular data that efficiently imitates an ensemble of MLPs 🏆 TabM has been used in winning solutions on Kaggle, and performs well on TabReD -- a challenging benchmark! 💻 pip install tabm 👇Link
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2 Jun 2025
this is perfect tbh
what would you put there?
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We re-analyzed the meta-analysis and found that the conclusion is almost entirely driven by publication bias. Both state-of-the-art and standard methods reduce the degree of the effect 2-3 fold. Moreover, the data no longer show statistical evidence for the main conclusions.
teachers in shambles a meta-analysis of 51 studies has shown that students using chatgpt have better learning performance, learning perception, and higher-order thinking
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🚨 ACCEPTED AT SMR 🚨
Confused by colleagues who seem to want to study LLMs instead of humans? Frustrated by skeptics (e.g., myself 8 months ago) who dismiss LLMs as a potential source of data on human behavior? Check out our paper for a new way forward: osf.io/j3bnt_v3/

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Generalized linear neural network models statmodeling.stat.columbia.e…

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Webinar: Hybrid Collective Intelligence! How can humans & machines collaborate to improve decision-making? Join us on 25 Feb 2025, 5-6 PM CET to explore challenges & opportunities with top experts linkedin.com/events/hybridco… #HybridIntelligence #AI #DecisionSupport #Webinar #HACID
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🚨Applications for the 22nd Summer Institute on Bounded Rationality are now open! 🌐Join us in Berlin @mpib_berlin from June 17–25, 2025 to explore "Decision Making in a Digital World". ✏️Application deadline is March 9 - more info at👇!! mpib-berlin.mpg.de/research/…
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🚨 TikTok’s Recommendation favors Republicans! 🚨 We built 323 fake accounts, watched 394K videos, and uncovered the political tilt in TikTok’s recommendations Your "For You" Page isn’t just for you—it's shaping how you see politics See our arXiv paper: arxiv.org/abs/2501.17831
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27 Jan 2025
The potential of LLMs in social & behavioral science is enormous—but how can we leverage them? @ZakASHussain & I just taught a 5-day course at #GSERM Ljubljana on this. Check out our open materials (cc-by-sa) on using open LLMs with @huggingface: github.com/Zak-Hussain/LLM4B…
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The data science revolution is getting closer. TabPFN v2 is published in Nature: nature.com/articles/s41586-0… On tabular classification with up to 10k data points & 500 features, in 2.8s TabPFN on average outperforms all other methods, even when tuning them for up to 4 hours🧵1/19
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This might be the first time after 10 years that boosted trees are not the best default choice when working with data in tables. Instead a pre-trained neural network is, the new TabPFN, as we just published in Nature 🎉
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Inference is fucked, gonna just bake bread for a living now
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14 Nov 2024
Very happy to share that our work is now published in PNAS (@PNASNews)! 🎉 It's a systematic look into how demographic and psychological factors are associated with misinformation susceptibility. @arc_mpib Thread below and can be read in full here: pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.24…
6 May 2024
Who falls for online misinformation? A meta-analysis on demographic and psychological factors impacting misinformation susceptibility. Preprint: osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/7u… My lovely coauthors: @AlanTump, Nina Ehmann, @lorenz_spreen, Ralph Hertwig, Anton Gollwitzer, @RalfKurvers 1/n
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