occasional shipping, special situations, commodities. Other ideas sometimes. allergic to grifters and unethical fintwit. once a lawyer 🇦🇺

Joined May 2025
67 Photos and videos
Moz retweeted
Dear Journalists Here is a list of 21 individuals who have provided a public submission to the Senate Inquiry on CGT and yet the government have not published those submissions. To put this in perspective they only published six individuals. SIX. This is a gross abuse of their fiduciary duty to have an open an accountable democracy. The true number would be much larger and we have a lower limit of 61 submissions that are missing based on the government's own numbering up to 150 on their website despite only 89 submissions being made public. Despite this cherry picking, the only people that support a change to the CGT on equity and business are hand-picked economists, and the Australian Council of Social Services. Current list of those who have submitted and not published: @DerekFranc90653 @chrisbrycki @TheRealDavey2 @keithmarlowau @David_McMahon75 @acxjones @Hughmaxdavis @James16878077 @SeanoftheWeb3 @onslowshipping @MarshBrentnall @jsmith_dev @linzcom @leighjasper @ProphetHaza @whmacdonald74 @BankReformNow @F66Geoff @_swordfish6975 @xrpfanboi88 And myself Thank you to all that replied. @mcranston1 @PhillipCoorey @MarkDiStef @GeoffWilsonWAM @AngusTaylorMP @PaulineHansonOz @ajamesbragg @AlboMP @JEChalmers x.com/toy59496/status/206576… x.com/toy59496/status/206561…
CGT Senate Summary (89 Submissions) An analysis of each submission and an executive summary at the end including a tally of support or otherwise can be found here: smallpdf.com/file#s=5ff833ef… A file of all the original submissions (994 pages) can be found here for the next 7 days only: fromsmash.com/8v~RDG97IV-gt I've also included a summary image below. To summarise the analysis: The 89 submissions divide into three broad camps. Roughly a third, dominated by housing, homelessness and community sector peak bodies, unions, progressive think tanks and most of the academic tax specialists, support the Bills in full and urge swift passage. Roughly a fifth, dominated by property industry bodies, business peak bodies, professional accounting and legal bodies and free-market think tanks, recommend the Bills not proceed at all or not in their current form. The largest single group, around a third, accepts or actively supports the residential property measures but opposes extending the same treatment to equities, operating businesses and venture capital. The remainder make narrow technical or sectoral points (valuation, philanthropy, salary packaging, gender impact) without taking a position on the package as a whole. This pattern is the most striking feature of the inquiry: the residential measures are contested mainly by the property industry itself, while the extension to equities and business is contested by submitters across the spectrum, including several who explicitly support the housing reforms. Technical Notes: This is constructed by Claude Max and cost me two weeks of compute power so I hope it's useful. Claude does not usually hallucinate in these matters unlike other AI. I have done some random manual cross checking and it seems to be fine. @DerekFranc90653 @GeoffWilsonWAM @chrisbrycki @RyanMaddockCA
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More coverage from Duncan of the QLD coal situation, including a good snippet (see attached image) on the obscene royalty regime. glad this is getting more and more attention as the LNP gov does everything it can to kill jobs in Queensland (isn't that task usually left to Labor?) (paywalled, couriermail.com.au/business/…)
Bowen Basin for sale. What happens if BHP exits Queensland? Full story: #coal #coaltwitter couriermail.com.au/business/…
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Moz retweeted
Senate Inquiry has concealed hundreds of submissions. x.com/toy59496/status/206561… Literally dozens of people on this platform have put in written submissions that they were willing to make public and have not been published on the Senate platform. I just checked and there are no more updates and will not be any more updates before the beginning of the Senate hearings. Only six individual submissions were published at all. Only a fraction of people on this platform have been published at all. In total there are only 89 submissions which I would suggest is probably less than 20% of what was submitted on the basis of feedback on this platform. x.com/toy59496/status/206561… This is a gross injustice of democracy where the voices of the people have been intentionally concealed until afterwards when it will make no difference. That in itself is a reason to remove this government for not satisfying the basic fiduciary obligations of a democracy which is to give its people voice. There can be no defence that the government is insufficiently resourced: they have chosen the timetable, they have expanded public positions by over 25% during their term. Indeed, over 50% of people in Australia draw their income from the government. On the contrary the government has simply decided that it is not in their interests to support disclosure of all submissions prior to the hearing or at all. Those that have been published are specifically curated for a particular outcome, and contrary views have only been expressed by virtue of the principled actions of the fourth estate. Absolutely disgraceful @AlboMP @JEChalmers What is the purpose of democracy if people go to the time and trouble to provide submissions that are concealed? I will place whatever resources I have available at my disposal to remove you both at the next election, and intend to target your seats specifically. A lot of other people will do the same. Careful, gentleman, we were content to be asleep, but now you have woken a nest of baby dragons... Happy to say all of this publicly. @PhillipCoorey @mcranston1 @AngusTaylorMP @ajamesbragg @PaulineHansonOz

CGT Senate Summary (89 Submissions) An analysis of each submission and an executive summary at the end including a tally of support or otherwise can be found here: smallpdf.com/file#s=5ff833ef… A file of all the original submissions (994 pages) can be found here for the next 7 days only: fromsmash.com/8v~RDG97IV-gt I've also included a summary image below. To summarise the analysis: The 89 submissions divide into three broad camps. Roughly a third, dominated by housing, homelessness and community sector peak bodies, unions, progressive think tanks and most of the academic tax specialists, support the Bills in full and urge swift passage. Roughly a fifth, dominated by property industry bodies, business peak bodies, professional accounting and legal bodies and free-market think tanks, recommend the Bills not proceed at all or not in their current form. The largest single group, around a third, accepts or actively supports the residential property measures but opposes extending the same treatment to equities, operating businesses and venture capital. The remainder make narrow technical or sectoral points (valuation, philanthropy, salary packaging, gender impact) without taking a position on the package as a whole. This pattern is the most striking feature of the inquiry: the residential measures are contested mainly by the property industry itself, while the extension to equities and business is contested by submitters across the spectrum, including several who explicitly support the housing reforms. Technical Notes: This is constructed by Claude Max and cost me two weeks of compute power so I hope it's useful. Claude does not usually hallucinate in these matters unlike other AI. I have done some random manual cross checking and it seems to be fine. @DerekFranc90653 @GeoffWilsonWAM @chrisbrycki @RyanMaddockCA
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I’ve been buying this lately (Fujii Sangyo / $9906.t). It’s got all the high quality Japanese net-net markers (forward PE of 5 or 6, 70% market cap in cash, decent ROE even despite the pile of cash), but it’s also got a couple of specific catalysts/moving parts that make me particularly interested. First is that it has significant exposure to the AI / data center capex boom as the company does a lot of the building and electrical work for data center construction Second, and more importantly, the company is finally executing on a long term corporate restructure to separate out their main businesses as subsidiaries, each with their own CEO, budget, etc. the company has explicitly said that this is to improve profitability, capital allocation, efficiency etc (“sustainable improvement of corporate value”) going forward (see attached image)
Replying to @orrdavid
$9906! 25% drawdown on management giving the same lowball guidance they give every year, despite doubling earnings in 4 years, 70% of market cap in cash, infra / capex tailwinds, recent commitment to restructure company for better capital allocation / SH returns, etc. can’t help but buy more
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The stock sold off on the same conservative guidance the company gives every year, but as to which, see the right hand column in this table x.com/berkelkip/status/20562…

Fujii Sangyo $9906.T reported good FY3/26 results in-line with pre-announcement. Stock -14%, however, on weak FY3/27 guidance though I'd note guidance has historically been very conservative - see below. Valuation: <0.9x TBV, 1.8x EV/EBIT, 7.2x P/E
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Moz retweeted
This is the email and phone number of the Senate Economics Committee economics.sen@aph.gov.au 61262773540 The committee staff appear to be deliberately slow-walking the publication of the submissions to the inquiry into the tax reform bills, no doubt from fear of media reaction to overwhelmingly negative public views. I’d encourage anyone with an interest in this to give them an email or a call, asking why the submissions haven’t been uploaded, and encouraging them in very strong terms to hurry up. Surprised this has had no media coverage yet @MarkDiStef
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A few hours left to submit if you haven’t already. If you do, I suggest making only one, simple, clear recommendation that gives the committee no wiggle room: confine the CGT discount changes to residential property.
If, like me, you are appalled at some of the changes to Aus tax settings that are set to become law, please make a submission to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee. Submissions close on the 9th. aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Bus… The first page of my submission is attached in the image below. I have confined myself to the CGT changes, and only to their application to assets outside of residential property. I don't think the gov is going to back down on any of it, but that seems like the area where the insane consequences of the changes are most obvious. Full submission at scribd.com/document/10463953…
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David has been on the money with all of this for a few days now. Worth a follow if you don’t already. I don’t envy him having to deal with the tsunami of ignorance and stupidity that ends up in each thread though
Yet another absurdity of the proposed CGT changes: A 20-year old uni student working part-time at Coles invests in some shares, saving for their future. They pay no tax on their wages since they are under the tax-free threshold. But if they make a $5000 gain on their shares, they get slugged with a 30% minimum tax. Does this sound fair to you?
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The more of this the better. I suggest for the sake of building and overwhelming consensus, anyone who submits has a simple recommendation, rather than several complicated ones: confine the changes to residential property, and remove the changes for all other assets.
What a joy it is to spend a public holiday trying to hastily draft a submission opposing the increase in CGT. Thankyou to the Labor Party for allowing only a few days for submissions which are due the day after a long weekend. I suppose we have more time than the Committee itself which has ONE BUSINESS DAY after public hearings to lodge its report. @GeoffWilsonWAM
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Moz retweeted
CGT tax changes chase capital out of Australia. Canada has the CGT regime we are ditching. And they are good at mining. No taxes no serviced.
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Moz retweeted
This is another unintended consequence of the proposed tax changes in Australia that isn’t getting enough attention. Foreign ownership of Australian productive assets will rise. This will be at the expense of domestic investors, who are now incentivised to put their savings in low growth alternatives.
Economic Treason: Selling Australia Through Tax Policy The economic theft hidden within the new CGT policy is not just the extra tax collected on citizens today, but that the lack of taxation on foreigners means compounding will rapidly transfer our sovereign assets into foreign hands. In the example shown, an asset that begins 50% Australian-owned and 50% foreign-owned ends up only 17% Australian-owned after 20 years, with foreign ownership rising to 83%. No takeover bid. No invasion. Just mathematics. Einstein called compounding the "eighth wonder of the world," emphasizing that its power is so vast it dictates whether you build wealth or pay the price. The new tax settings mean we pay a very high price indeed. We pay with our home. You might think the starting proportion of ownership is unrealistic at 50% each. In fact it's worse than you think, as the image shows 70% of our mining productive assets are already in foreign hands. With the disincentive for retail investors to invest in small miners you can effectively kiss our major export industry goodbye, as the effective portfolio tax means only foreigners will be incentivised to invest in these small miners. The structural failures of this new tax system are immense. Sovereignty is ultimately about control. If we progressively lose control of the farms, mines, companies and productive assets of Australians we will eventually be subservient to an overseas economic Hegemon. Arguably in relation to mining we already are subservient, and we urgently need to pivot the tax burden to advantage compounding to our citizens relative to foreigners. And yet your government is doing the exact opposite, and accelerating this tax-based transfer to foreign hands. A nation that systematically taxes its own citizens more heavily than competing foreign capital should not be surprised when more of its wealth, influence and economic future ends up beyond its borders. The government's taxation policy is not just poorly conceived but brought to its inevitable conclusion it is simply economic treason. @AngusTaylorMP @PaulineHansonOz @AlboMP @JEChalmers
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I’ve finally taken the position in #29M that I discussed on the podcast. Thesis is beautifully simple: the company will avoid a CR by announcing a sale of stream on gold/silver at Golden Grove that should raise $300m . That should light a fire under the stock. If that doesn’t happen within, say, 3 months, I’ll be out. risk/reward heavily tilted to upside from here imo
Good Ep.. some observations on recent streams... 1. $BHP/Antamina to Wheaton.. sold 80% of silver (100% @ 20% of spot). ~5Mozpa so sold ~4Mozpa for a long mine life for US$4.3bn. At $70/oz is 6.5% 2. $KGL.AX to Wheaton.. sold 60% of PM's (75% @ 20% of spot). ~1.5Mozpa AgEq.. so sold ~900kozpa AgEq for ~8yr mine life for US$275m. At $70/oz is 23% (but note the mine life).. #S32 has Hermosa which is 9Mozpa Ag.. sell 40% (50% @ 20% spot) and that's 3.6Mozpa for a long mine life.... can get similar value to BHP Antamina? #29M has Golden Grove which is effectively 1.7Mozpa AgEq.. sell 40% (50% @ 20% of spot) and that's ~700kozpa AgEq over 20yr mine life.. can get similar value to KGL? 6% debt is a great source of capital... but so too are some of these streams...
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Moz retweeted
If, like me, you are appalled at some of the changes to Aus tax settings that are set to become law, please make a submission to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee. Submissions close on the 9th. aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Bus… The first page of my submission is attached in the image below. I have confined myself to the CGT changes, and only to their application to assets outside of residential property. I don't think the gov is going to back down on any of it, but that seems like the area where the insane consequences of the changes are most obvious. Full submission at scribd.com/document/10463953…
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If, like me, you are appalled at some of the changes to Aus tax settings that are set to become law, please make a submission to the Senate Economics Legislation Committee. Submissions close on the 9th. aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Bus… The first page of my submission is attached in the image below. I have confined myself to the CGT changes, and only to their application to assets outside of residential property. I don't think the gov is going to back down on any of it, but that seems like the area where the insane consequences of the changes are most obvious. Full submission at scribd.com/document/10463953…
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Would quickly transform australia into a near superpower
May 29
🚀🇦🇺 Major tax reform could make Australia's economy world-class. Christopher Joye's (@cjoye) bold blueprint: - Permanently end bracket creep - Flatter, simpler income tax (0% to 42%) - Company tax cut to a flat 20% - Zero CGT on first $20k gains 10% IP rate - Full instant expensing for business investment Funded by lifting GST to 15% (broad base), a 50% NDIS trim, and slashing public service costs by 25%. Net result? A modest surplus and a genuine productivity-led economy that rewards work, risk-taking and innovation instead of bureaucracy. Australia doesn't lack money. It lacks courage. Time to choose. #AusEconomy #TaxReform #Budget2026 #auspol
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Please read this article from Claude
Why the mooted changes to capital gains tax would be terrible for #ASX growth #stocks. Just published "Why The CGT Change Is Terrible For Growth Stocks" free to read on the homepage or find it just below.
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@MarkDiStef you can find a way to quote the main paragraph can’t you cc @Johnkehoe23 @Wembridge
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