drifting with markets

Joined January 2018
177 Photos and videos
Tho retweeted

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Good morning my loves, happy Saturday. Sorry I've been quiet, obviously been busy, but thought it'd be nice to give you all the details on the multi-strategy absolute return program that experienced the 28% drawdown this year. (1/n)
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May 13
slice of life
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Do I have any followers who work at AlphaGrep (either now or in the past) who would be willing to talk to me about it? Trying to figure out some stuff.
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May 10
man vs mountain
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Tho retweeted
The gap between where you are and where you want to be exists only in the space between thinking and doing. Everything you desire already has a path to it. Someone has done it before, or the steps can be broken down and figured out. The real barriers aren't external; they're the stories you tell yourself about why you can't start today, with what you have, from where you are. Your desires aren't random, they're signals pointing toward your authentic self. Trust them, but hold them lightly. As you move toward them, you'll discover that the person you become in pursuit of what you want is often more valuable than getting the thing itself. Start now. Start imperfectly. Start with one small action today. Then another tomorrow. Consistency compounds faster than talent, and action creates clarity faster than planning. Most people wait for permission, perfect conditions, or complete knowledge. You don't need any of these. The universe is incredibly responsive to genuine effort. When you commit and start moving, resources appear, people help, opportunities emerge. But this magic only happens after you begin, never before. Your time is finite and precious. Every day you delay acting on what matters to you is a day you can't get back. Stop researching, stop preparing, stop waiting for the right moment. The right moment is now, and you already have enough to take the first step. Everything else is just details you'll figure out along the way.
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Tho retweeted
Haute Fihnance 101
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RSVP for a timeslot. No public hours. May 7-10, Caelum Gallery @ W26th.
Through this elevator you will enter Hardo’s Debut Art Show - Haute Fihnance 101 - on May 7-10, 2026
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Tho retweeted
Mean-variance optimization (MVO) is one of the most foundational ideas in finance. It is also one of the easiest to caricature. You estimate expected returns and a covariance matrix, feed them into an optimizer, and often the result disappoints. So what goes wrong?
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Tho retweeted
Apr 29
Threw together a Wordle-style game for data transformations. You get a chart and guess what was done to the data (winsorize, z-score, gaussian rank, lag, etc). Reply if you want to try it and I'll probably put it out there.
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Apr 29
If I have an obj func like: x*active_risk y*market_impact z*linear_cost, is there a neat way to find (x,y,z) analytically or top down rather than a grid search on backtest results? paging the OGs: @__paleologo @macrocephalopod @0xfdf and everyone. Thank you in advance!
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This is the story of Hyperliquid, the most profitable startup per employee on earth, told from a guarded office in Singapore. Last year, its team of 11 generated $900 million in profit. It's 3 years old, has never taken a dollar of venture capital, and is beginning to change how century-old markets work. Its founder, Jeffrey Yan (@chameleon_jeff), had never taken a physics class when he picked up a textbook at 16. Two years later, he won gold at the International Physics Olympiad. In 2019, he started trading with $10,000 from a living room in Puerto Rico—working off a television because he didn't own a monitor. Within 3 years, he was running one of the largest anonymous crypto trading firms. Then he shut it down. Yan was rich and free, but he had spent years inside crypto, watching it betray itself. Bitcoin's central premise was decentralization. Yet the biggest exchanges were centralized. Crypto kept reintroducing the dependence on trust it was built to eliminate. He set out to create what should have existed. Hyperliquid is a blockchain with a trading exchange on top, and anyone can build on it. Yan's vision is to house all of finance. In 3 years, it has done over $4 trillion in volume. And in the past few months, it has begun to outgrow crypto. Markets for oil, silver, and the S&P 500 now trade on Hyperliquid around the clock, weekends included, and are growing roughly 40% week on week. When the US and Israel bombed Iran on a Saturday in February, Hyperliquid was the venue traders turned to. Hyperliquid's success has cost Yan his freedom. He works out of a secret office in Singapore and cannot travel without two bodyguards. Even the team's housekeeper doesn't know what they do. In January, @domcooke spent a week at their office. Read his profile on Yan and @HyperliquidX below.
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Tho retweeted
I see comments like this re: the design of oil perpetuals on TradeXYZ/HL a lot -- why do the oil perps use futures as the underlying, rather than spot? The question shows a fundamental misunderstanding by crypto-native people, who I guess understandably do not spend much time thinking about the mechanics of physical commodity markets!
Apr 9
It’s quite odd to design perps with futures as the underlying. The whole point of perps was to remove the need for rolling over futures. They probably have good reasons for why they didn’t use spot prices, but still very odd.
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We're hiring. 3 years: $0 → $1bn AUM. 7 ETFs. A category we're taking mainstream. Now we need someone to help scale the advisor relationships that got us here. Associate, Advisor Solutions — internal sales, clear path to external. Remote. If you've got distribution experience, know ETFs or alts, and want to sell something you actually have to understand — link below.
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Apr 6
this looks like a chapter from "The World for Sale". amazing stuff. you can just do things
Strait of Hormuz: A CitriniResearch Field Trip The Field Report from Analyst #3 is live. citriniresearch.com/p/strait…
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Strait of Hormuz: A CitriniResearch Field Trip The Field Report from Analyst #3 is live. citriniresearch.com/p/strait…
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Tho retweeted
have been working on my own subagent harness so i can use subagents with different providers from within claude code, been working well in my own workflows looking for beta testers & contributors to take it for a spin before i make it public
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Tho retweeted
some interesting pricing between Polymarket's 2028 presidential election winner markets and democrat/republican nominee markets. they are very liquid but they are not efficient you can arbitrage these 1/5
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Feb 24
have you ever captured 7 different cross-dex funding arbs, in 1 click each, in 30 seconds via 14 hidden TWAPs with randomized amounts and randomized intervals (fully hidden twaps, ie not visible as twaps onchain) with execution cost protection and twap slice skipping for undesirable price spreads/slippage non-custodially (use your regular wallet, we never see your private keys) while also listening to a podcast about usa men's hockey team beating canada in the only sport they care about because i have. about 10 mins ago on @LorisTools sign up here 👉 loris.tools/waitlist
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