writer

Joined April 2009
13,127 Photos and videos
"Thoughts and prayers" ugh. #Pretti
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
I’ve seen the paper. It’s not a jailbreak. It was Defense Oriented Prompting (DOP), capabilities defenders need. My thoughts on the hasty Export Controls that made Anthropic pull Fable. If Nat defense is the goal, this just scored an own goal against us wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-ha…
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
Let’s say Fable never released and instead Open AI released 5.6 with the same capabilities as Fable. Does it get yoinked by the US Government?
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
Anthropic is straightforwardly correct that Fable is a step up and a highly dangerously capable model. The people saying otherwise do not believe in superintelligence and do not understand what is going on.
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
Has there been anything good written about the failure of Mistral to keep up with both the Big Three and Chinese labs? They have talent and national backing, but despite being Europe’s only frontier lab (Google Deepmind’s UK lab aside), they haven’t been able to close the gap
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
We are plausibly heading to a world with with tiered access to foundational models; as a function of country willingness to sign trade deals etc
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
If models like Fable 5 are already being kept away from the public, imagine the drama once AGI shows up.
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
if the government can simply halt progress, maybe ai actually is a bubble
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
Prediction time: - Europe will absolutely learn nothing from this incident. At best they are going to invest an additional 2B Euros in some robotics or image gen startup, because they think that's somehow relevant - China will get even more AGI pilled and restructure their entire economy for one purpose
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
BREAKING: The Justice Department filed a certification in federal court one hour before a judge's Saturday noon deadline that said President Trump's name has been "removed" from "all physical signage on the Kennedy Center building and grounds. abcnews.link/ZDwa8MK
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
Situational awareness was written three years ago and proved remarkably prescient
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
benefits to anthropic from the Fable restriction: - aura farm ( narrative weaving, recruiting, customers, ipo hype, ego etc) - mog oai - create precedent for increasing fed gov control/regs/fusion. non-cynically seems like a messy but incrementally helpful step to get closer to dario’s vision for gov role in reducing xrisk. cynically also an incremental precedent toward creating a regulatory moat to lessen arms race commoditization dynamic - win points with enemies of current admin likely to be in power in 2 years (seems likely there will be much more for big labs to gain/lose politically by then) costs to anthropic from the Fable restriction: - risks worsening relationship with current unpredictable fed admin and allies, who they already have friction with - may have to restrict even internal access to non-US anthropic researchers (seems extremely disruptive if longer than a week) - increased political/regulatory uncertainty going into ipo - no option to provide Fable access for some short period (a week at most?). maybe much longer for non-US users (or some subset). doesnt seem very harmful commercially as long as only short term, unless oai releases something better that’s not similarly restricted missing anything?
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
This whole Fable export control situation is actually net positive to regulation discourse. It’s an early peek into what AI regulation would end up looking like at scale when enacted at the model layer instead of the specific application of the AI. The government would have sole discretion over when a model can be released to the to public, based on a bunch of factors that they inherently control. In this case, based on the available reporting, the risk is that the model can be jailbroken to deliver increased cyber exploit capabilities. The issue is that actually you want models to be able to have those capabilities on the defense side of cyber as well, and for all intents and purposes, by Anthropic’s own response, you can execute these capabilities today in other models. So thus the whole challenge will be that you’re debating with the government, over months and months, with every model release, what these models are actually capable of and what their risks are. Inherently, there’s not only a lot of subjectivity in determining those risks, but there’s also many other factors that go into the risks being practical in the first place. The net result is that we would end up with backlog of AI releases, progress in the market inherently would dramatically slow down, and AI would start to look more like any other sclerotic industry. If this paradigm had existed 3 years ago at the start of the current AI wave, we’d likely currently be stuck on GPT-4 level intelligence at this point. This is why, wherever possible, we should be regulating the applied use of AI. We should continue to study and enforce the dangerous use of AI in cyber attacks, financial services risks, fraud, biowarfare, and other spaces. AI safety is incredibly important, but slowing down progress this early in the development of AI I suspect is net harmful.
The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Claude models is not affected. We apologize for this disruption to our customers. We believe this is a misunderstanding and are working to restore access as soon as possible. Read our full statement: anthropic.com/news/fable-myt…
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
Interesting: According to David Sacks’ opinion, the fault lies with Anthropic (specifically CEO Dario Amodei). He argues that: • Anthropic released Fable (Mythos with guardrails) but refused the U.S. government’s reasonable request to fix a confirmed jailbreak that could expose advanced cyber capabilities. • They prioritized keeping the consumer model available over addressing the safety issue, which directly contradicts their long-standing public branding as the “AI safety company.” • The administration only issued the export control reluctantly after Anthropic declined to cooperate, and Sacks emphasizes that the ball is now in Anthropic’s court to remediate the problem. It’s getting more interesting minute by minute.
I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
Feels like we’re getting psyoped. The end-game here is something bigger.
Breaking: Amazon CEO Andy Jassy was among the tech leaders who raised concerns to senior Trump officials this week re: security risks in Anthropic's newest models. Those convos set in motion the government's new export controls on foreign national access to Mythos and Fable.
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Name removal, but make it cinematic.
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
NEW: Anthropic claims the capability cited by the U.S. in restricting Fable 5 is already widely available from other models, including OpenAI’s GPT-5.5.
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
I’ve had a number of conversations with folks inside and outside government about the current situation with Anthropic, and here is what I believe to be true: — As we know, Anthropic publicly released its Mythos class models earlier this week under the commercial name Fable. — Fable is Mythos with guardrails. But if those guardrails fail, then you’ve exposed Mythos and its advanced cyber capabilities to people who shouldn’t have them. (Keep in mind that Anthropic itself widely promoted the idea that Mythos was a cyberweapon and needed to be regulated as such. They asked for government regulation of Mythos and championed the guardrails on Fable. If there is a vulnerability — big or small — it is Anthropic’s responsibility to patch.) — A highly credible trusted partner of both Anthropic and the USG who was testing Fable came forward with a jailbreak of those guardrails. The Admin asked Dario to fix the jailbreak or de-deploy the model. Dario refused. — In their blog post, Anthropic defended its decision by saying the jailbreak isn’t serious. That is not what the trusted partner and the USG believe; nor is that kind of minimizing language consistent with Anthropic’s brand as the AI safety company. It’s difficult to fathom how they could claim a jailbreak allowing operability of a cyber weapon could be defined as not “serious.” — In the past, Anthropic has always said that safety must be top priority and taken super seriously. In this case, Anthropic prioritized the continued offering of the consumer model over safety. — In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly. It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue). Anthropic’s reaction is very much at odds with their branding and ethos as a safe AI research community. — The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue, the export control is lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible. It is frankly bewildered that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to comply with safety requests that it previously said were its highest priority. — Those trying to misdirect and tie this action to the prior DoW/Anthropic issues are wrong. The Admin values Anthropic’s technical capabilities and feels that this issue, while serious, should be easily resolved. The ball is in Anthropic’s court.
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
now it comes down to gpt-5.6 anthropic got what it wanted dario and the effective altruist crowd at anthropic have been fearmongering about fable's capabilities to limit public access to advanced AI and now they're seeing what happens when the government takes their claims seriously
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
Welcome back, #KennedyCenter!
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Shelton Bumgarner (sheltgarner.bsky.social) retweeted
BREAKING: A federal judge ordered the Trump administration to certify by noon on Saturday that it has complied with a court order to remove the president's name from the Kennedy Center, granting a brief extension requested by the Department of Justice. abcnews.link/hu1WejE
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