Geopolitical Strategist| Chief Strategic Foreseer | I coined #Dragonbear |#geopolitics |#GlobalSystem | #realpolitik | #foresight | #trends | #risks | #RWRI

Joined November 2011
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Join me for the next session of my Geopolitical Webinar: GLOBAL SYSTEM RUPTURE: The Fourth Crisis and What Comes Next 📅 Date: Monday, 1 June 2026 🕐 Time: 11:00–13:00 CET 💻 Format: Live online webinar 🎥 Available to all registered participants after the event. A lot to cover!
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Borrowed time. Borrowed market. Borrowed narrative. Global System Rupture.
Chevron CEO: Oil Market Running on Borrowed Time as Safety Cushions Shrink
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Former MI6 Chief Moore said: Without China, Russia would have lost war in Ukraine. In fact, Russia would have never launched a full-scale war on Ukraine if it had not relied on the DragonBear amid new Cold War with the US. Wake up after five years of the biggest war on Europe!
Former MI6 Chief Richard Moore: Without China, Russia would have lost war in Ukraine. North Korean troops and Iranian drones grab headlines. But what keeps Putin in Ukraine is China — chemicals for artillery shells, components for drones and missiles. 1/
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This were exactly the vibes from Oman on February 27.
We are closer to a peace deal than ever before. With finalisation likely expected in the next 24 hours, Pakistan is preparing for the electronic signing of the peace deal immediately after, followed by technical level talks next week. We would like to thank United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran for their ongoing commitment during the negotiations, and we extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in the region for their support. We are confident that this historic peace deal will form a strong foundation for lasting peace. @realDonaldTrump @JDVance @SecRubio @SteveWitkoff @SEPeaceMissions @drpezeshkian @araghchi
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If the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen soon, the world will face the fourth global systemic crisis after GFC, Covid and Russia’s war against Ukraine. Everyone will be affected the one way or another and the tsunami will hit the global economy & trade like never before. Wake up!
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The behind-the-curtains-talks continue ahead of the next phase of trilateral negotiations between US, Ukraine and Russia. If we get Iran deal by tomorrow, the deal on Ukraine is quite likely by the end of summer.
NEW!! Trump will attend a working session with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during next week's G7 summit in France, U.S. officials say
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Iran Deal by tomorrow; no tolls in the Strait of Hormuz and an reopening ahead of Monday’s market.
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Velina Tchakarova retweeted
Today is big day for Elon and SpaceX. But in 2013, Richard Bowles from Arianespace, said that SpaceX primarily seems to be selling a dream. $50M launch is a dream. Reusability is a dream… This was only 13 years ago. Never ever give up on your dreams.

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My attitude in life. But be extremely picky about both the books and the people!
Elon Musk on learning:
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Whenever I get an invitation!
Replying to @vtchakarova
When can we expect you in India?
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There’s literally nothing to romanticize about the skyrocketing career of a KGB agent turned to president as a facade of the siloviki system that has reestablished itself after the 90s. I’ve watched some of these footages and there’s been no doubt to my mind where this will lead.
Jun 12
🚨 From a KGB agent to a bloody dictator. What was Putin like before the Kremlin? NEXTA has gathered unique archival footage from 1990s. Watch how a story that began in quiet offices turned into a global catastrophe. The price of absolute power.
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Perhaps it’s time to openly admit that European NATO countries will have to send their troops to train and learn from Ukraine, not visa versa. Ukraine is turning into the military and technological avant-garde of European NATO at the doorstep of the new Iron Curtain with Russia.
For the first time since 2022, Ukraine is steadily seizing the battlefield initiative. The cost of advancement for Russia continues to skyrocket—in May, Ukraine reclaimed more territory than Russia managed to capture. This is a historic moment for our nation to force Russia into peace and end this war from a position of absolute strength. But achieving this requires more than weapons and technology alone. That is why we are building a completely new military service system rooted in human respect, justice, and transparent, clear-cut rules.
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Can’t wait to be back to Singapore this year.
Singapore might be tiny until you realize: > 1 in every 10 chips worldwide is produced here > 20% of global semiconductor equipment output here > 6% of GDP comes from semiconductors
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I prefer to remember the smirks of all those who have predicted he would fail.
Next time you think of giving up, remember this photo of Elon in 2008.
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There’s been 13 years since the last enlargement round. In times of geopolitical uncertainty and chaos, the enlargement reduces the global system entropy. Just make it faster this time!
Today, the European Union took a major step forward. All Member States agreed to open the first accession negotiations cluster with Ukraine and Moldova. At the first Intergovernmental Conference on Monday, we will open the cluster on fundamentals; the backbone of the accession process. It covers the core values and principles on which the EU is built, from the rule of law to strong democratic institutions. This is a recognition of the determination, courage and hard work shown by both countries in advancing reforms, even in the face of immense challenges. And a signal that the EU’s offer of peace, stability and opportunity is unmatchable. Enlargement is a strategic choice. By bringing our nations closer together, we strengthen peace, security and prosperity across our continent. In a world marked by growing uncertainty, a larger European Union is in our common interest. Enlargement remains one of the EU’s greatest success stories and our best investment in our shared future.
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Probably it’s nothing..
Sulfuric acid. Who needs the produce metal, anyway ?
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Velina Tchakarova retweeted
There is a reason why the world still keeps the reference of the Great Financial Crisis for 2007-2008 because as a first systemic risk-driven global crisis, it took the tsunami some time to hit the global economy. First slowly, then suddenly.
Tank bottoms. I am the bag holder with you then. I am adding here. Let me say this again we are still drawing 5-6mb/d and the market is still missing 10mb/d of oil.
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Or underestimate the disruption at your own peril…
Numbers need to be put in context yes 100 million barrels passing through Hormuz last month sounds like a big number… but pre war flows were between 450-600 million barrels a month. DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE the disruption. #OOTT
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