Ukraineโs counteroffensive is gaining momentum
In the spring of 2023, everyone was swept up in euphoriaโUkraine was preparing for its counteroffensive. New brigades were being trained, armed with new weapons, and everyone was waiting for them to strike and liberate Ukraineโs occupied territories.
Russian channels were filled with horror stories about how their fortifications would first be attacked with missiles, then everything would be overrun by combat vehicles, and finally the infantry would finish the job.
Between the lines, everyone sensed that the goal would be to reach the coast of the Sea of Azov and cut off Crimea.
It all ended in a massive fiascoโthe Russians knew the plans perfectly well, and the territories had been mined and heavily shelled. Many Ukrainians were killed, and due to the conflict between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyy, the latter was forced to step down. The lessons of this bloodbath were learnedโsuccessful offensive plans thrive on secrecy.
Another lesson was learned in Khersonโwhen the Russiansโ logistics were completely cut off. It wasnโt difficultโthe right bank was connected to the left by only a couple of bridges, so with the Ukrainians controlling them with HIMARS, logistics collapsed and the Russians withdrew without a fight.
The lessons were clear as wellโthe first and often the last task is to cut off logistics.
For several months now, a new Ukrainian counteroffensive has been proceeding quite successfully with the same objectiveโto reach the Sea of Azov, cut off Crimea, and ultimately enter it.
Logistics on the left bank of the Dnieper have now been completely destroyed. This was achieved by developing drones that are resistant to radio jamming and can fly hundreds of kilometers. All Russian attempts to deliver fuel and ammunition end in their destructionโthe drones control everything.
Today, rumors have already spread that the Russians are withdrawing troops from the Kinburn Spitโthe farthest point. And I think this is true, because itโs simply impossible to hold out without receiving reinforcements. And I think that soon the Russians will face an existential questionโwhat to do on the southern front. Try to hold out, but that will require withdrawing forces from the Donbas, or retreat.
But in the event of a withdrawal, itโs unclear where to retreat toโbecause once the Ukrainians reach the Sea of Azov, the fall of Crimea will be only a matter of time. The Ukrainians arenโt the Finns, for whom a freeze in the front lines was acceptable. And once Crimea falls, it is unimaginable that Putin and his henchmen will remain in power.
It seems to me that we are approaching a very, very interesting moment. It makes no difference what a rat cornered in a corner will do if an iron fist begins to squeeze it.