"The AI capex boom is likely to weigh on Return on Equity (RoE) for the mega-cap tech stocks in coming years." Goldman Sachs via @BlakeMillardCFA

Korean Media: SK Hynix Preparing Massive $66.4 Billion Shareholder Return Program Following ADR Listing - Korean media report that SK Hynix is expected to announce a large-scale shareholder return program worth approximately $66.4 billion after its ADR listing. - To minimize dilution concerns and potential backlash from existing shareholders, the company has reportedly reduced the ADR offering size from 2.4% of outstanding shares to the low-2% range. - SK Hynix is expected to raise approximately KRW 40 trillion (about $26.5 billion) through the issuance of new shares as part of the ADR offering.

GLM 5.2 ranks #3 on FrontierSWE. It is only behind Fable 5 and Opus 4.8, and it outperforms GPT-5.5. This is the first model that closes the large gap between models from Anthropic / OpenAI and other providers, and it is the strongest open-weight model by far.

so it seems like unfortunately we're staying pretty much on-trend and open models are pushing their way towards fable-performance with the usual 4-5 month lag. opus and 5.5 were already very good at cyber especially with scale the right scaffolding. these models are cheaper, have no safeguards or kyc, and can likely be fine-tuned rl'd for even further improvements without significant effort i think it's very obvious at this point that mythos access has *not* been enough for radical changes and hardening of global security we're in for a very rough time very soon

Mizuho semi supply chain tracker: no delays 800VDC & strong demand $NVDA CPO switch: "In the HVDC/800VDC investment case, the deployment schedule should be an average of 12-month lead-time from the initial system (like power rack) shipment by vendors, in our view" "Lumentum ( $LITE ) highlighted a rising adoption rate of InP-based NPO from its clients and we also expect stronger Google TPU demand to boost $AVGO VCSEL-based NPO sales. "micro-LED (uLED) based optical solutions that are developed and promoted by other chipmakers, such as Credo ( $CRDO ) in ALC (LED cables) and Avicena (private), to capture future scale-up (XPU to XPU) and scale-in (XPU to HBM) opportunities."

Identifying and owning the bottlenecks of the AI build-out, China edition.

Against all odds. Congrats @elonmusk and @SpaceX.

24x more tokens used by 2030. More inference compute. More earnings across the AI supply chain.

Satya Nadella just posted something that validates the entire AI buildout thesis from the very top of the stack. The model is commoditizing. The durable value is the learning loop a company builds on top of the model. He splits it into two assets: Human capital -- the knowledge, judgment, relationships, and pattern recognition of your people. Token capital -- the AI capability the firm builds and owns. He says the real opportunity is building a learning loop where human capital and token capital compound together. If the model layer is commoditizing then the durable returns are not in the model makers. They are in the infrastructure that powers every company building its own loop. Compute. Memory. Interconnect. Power. The full stack underneath the application layer. The model wars will have winners and losers. The infrastructure underneath gets bought either way. Bullish the AI buildout. Every layer. If you want to understand them in detail, check out my Substack. open.substack.com/pub/rensub…

Researchers show that Claude Code is 98% not AI. Anthropic never gave us the architecture for Claude Code. There were no docs. Just a tool that every developer is currently obsessing over. Until it leaked recently. A research team pulled the source code, analyzed all 500,000 lines, and found something ridiculous. Only 1.6% of the codebase actually interacts with the AI model. The core of Claude Code is literally just a simple while-loop. It asks the model what to do, runs a tool, and repeats. So what is the other 98.4%? It is hardcore, traditional software engineering. The researchers found a massive, complex infrastructure designed entirely to babysit the AI and keep it from hallucinating or destroying your computer: - A 7-mode permission system acting as a security bouncer. - A 5-layer context compaction pipeline so the AI doesn't forget its goal. - A subagent delegation mechanism with strict worktree isolation. - Four different extensibility hooks to manage external tools safely. Every startup right now is trying to build a better AI model to get better results. Anthropic did the exact opposite. They took an existing model and built a fortress of deterministic software around it. They realized that the AI doesn't need to be smarter. It needs to be managed.

With $NVDA and $GOOGL leading on the 800V DC, here's a reminder of who is the only supplier that can go <=1.5mm with VPD. $VICR

Two days ago the US banned Claude Fable 5. Yesterday China dropped GLM 5.2. Today GLM 5.2 is #1 on @bridgebench BS at 100.0, and #1 on Reasoning at 42.8, beating Fable 5. At 1/10th the cost and 300 tokens per second. You cannot export control your way out of an open source race. The ban didn't slow China down. Unban Fable 5.

Simple, the Trump admin cannot roll out new restrictions/export controls targeting China because the Chinese can/will retaliate We are not in the H100 era, where the supply chain was largely concentrated in Taiwan/Korea/Japan Becuz of shortages, Nvidia & hyperscalers have been forced to qualify Chinese suppliers, especially in the PCB supply chain and electrical components like transformers China had a chokehold on optics (optical fibers and transceivers) from the beginning, and this is just getting amplified as optical content in DCs is increasing Coherent CEO went to China with the Trump delegation, asking for InP for lasers I want u guys to study the optical fiber preform supply chain, and who are the largest suppliers Btw, Chinese exposure is also spreading to other parts of the AI supply chain High end MLCCs use Dysprosium Oxide and China supplies most of it to Japanese producers Tungsten ban from China is causing the prices of WF6 gases to shoot up If PTFE is finalized for M9/M10 CCL, then Shengyi and Chinese PTFE suppliers will have a huge chokehold over Nvidia Google is in talks with Envicool for the supply of cooling components If diamond-copper composites are adopted as heat spreaders for GPUs, then China will establish a chokehold there as well, since most of the synthetic diamonds are produced there and China is at the cutting edge of this tech I haven't even talked about the use cases of gallium, germanium, tellurium, antimony, bismuth, fluorine, terbium, yttrium, ferrite cores in the AI supply chain, and how China has a chokehold there The Trump admin is constrained in a lot of ways and can't unilaterally export control stuff

Fable isn't the first. In 1999 the department of defense blocked exports of the PowerMac G4 for crossing the 1 gigaflop threshold. Steve Jobs turned it into an ad.

Nassim Taleb: the richest man in the Roman Empire woke up every morning pretending he was poor. Seneca had more to lose than to gain from his wealth - so he rehearsed losing it. Every so often he'd live on bread and water as if shipwrecked, just to make the downside familiar and harmless. That's the whole game, Taleb says: arrange your life so you have far more upside than downside - then randomness stops scaring you. "Make more when you're right than you lose when you're wrong - that's antifragile." "Always keep more upside than downside from random events." "The Stoics aren't unmoved by the world - only by bad events." ~70 min, free. the oldest trick for surviving a world you can't predict ↓

Okay, here we go again. On 0DTE, you can classify days into straddle-buy and straddle-sell days simply by ranking the straddle by vol rank.

“Do not compare, do not measure. No other way is like yours.” — Carl Jung

Nice

Data from Altimeter: Morgan Stanley now projecting $GOOG to spend $299B on CapEx next year up 57% from $190B this year The biggest revision to previous estimates by a country mile.. $MSFT. CapEx est. revised from $178B to $276B in 2027 🤯 Hyperscaler CapEx now est. >$1.1T

Today feels like a good day to reshare this clip of Ariane Aerospace’s CEO calling SpaceX’s reusability plans “a dream”