Our partner @dmidk hosts the 13th International Workshop on Sea Ice Modelling, Assimilation, Observations, Predictions & Verification 💬With discussions on #SeaIcePrediction, #DataAssimilation, numerical #Modelling, observations & #AI application Info 👉 shorturl.at/Q4OGx

How resilient is Earth’s climate? A new Smithsonian/UArizona study in Science reconstructs 485M years of global temperature. But that’s a backward-looking baseline with a 68% past probability band. What are the statistical odds for our actual future? 🧵👇 📈 The Long-Term Metric: Deep-time data reveals Earth System Sensitivity (ESS) is higher than we thought. Doubling atmospheric CO2 historically locked in a massive 8°C (14.4°F) long-term temperature rise once slow-moving feedbacks (like ice sheets) fully caught up. 🔮 The Future Odds (By 2100): Climate scientists use Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to calculate the statistical probabilities of where we go next: The Baseline Trend (SSP2-4.5): Current global policy tracks here with the highest probability. The statistical 90% confidence interval points to a 2.1°C to 3.5°C rise by 2100—an instantaneous vertical spike on a geological timescale. Aggressive Cuts (SSP1-2.6): Limits warming to under 2°C. Low probability—requires unprecedented geopolitical coordination. Worst-Case Burn (SSP5-8.5): Projects 4.4°C. Low probability—global market shifts toward renewables have mostly bent the curve away from this track. ⚠️ Tipping Point Probabilities: At our current trajectory ( 1.5°C to 2°C), statistical models show a ~70% chance of triggering a permanent Greenland Ice Sheet collapse, and a near 95% certainty of widespread Arctic permafrost thaw releasing unmodeled methane loops. 💥 The Catastrophic Black Swans: These variables throw all standard statistical probabilities out the window: #NuclearWinter / #NuclearAutumn: A full-scale exchange drops global temps by 5°C instantly via stratospheric soot. Even a limited 100-warhead regional conflict carries high odds of a global #NuclearFamine, cutting crop yields by 10-13%. Impact Events: A meteor or comet strike completely bypasses natural feedback loops, replacing gradual cycles with abrupt impact winters. The Relativistic Wildcard: An FTL or kinetic space alien impact introduces unmodeled physics entirely. 🔬 The Golden Rule: Always evaluate who funds the studies (NSF, Smithsonian, NASEM) and if the data is independently replicated. Models are only as solid as the real-world volcanic/wildfire analogs used to calibrate the code. #Paleoclimate #ClimateModeling #DataAssimilation #Astrophysics #NuclearWinter #ScientificSkepticism #EarthHistory

Interested in next-gen prediction, data-driven modelling, and integrating #machinelearning with physical #science? Join us for the 8th WMO #Symposium on #DataAssimilation in Nanjing, China (31 Aug–4 Sep 2026) and submit your #abstract by 28 Feb. Read more: bit.ly/4byzPfl

CiROCCO joined @eumetsat #EO cluster meeting focused on turning EU research into operational, user-ready #GreenDeal services across Europe. We shared progress on satellite aerosol modelling #DataAssimilation. Full story: linkedin.com/feed/update/urn…

Interested in next-gen prediction, data-driven modelling, and integrating #machinelearning with physical #science? Join us for the 8th WMO #Symposium on #DataAssimilation in Nanjing, China (31 Aug–4 Sep 2026) and submit your #abstract by 28 Feb. Read more: bit.ly/4byzPfl

Postdoctoral researcher (f_m_x) in paleomagnetism - Potsdam, Germany - earthworks-jobs.com/jobs/gfz… #jobs #postdoc #paleomagnetism #geophysics #physics #geosciences #DataAssimilation #NumericalSimulations

We're pleased to release DIFFICE-jax v1.0, the foundation of our Science paper and the first #DIFFerentiable #NeuralNetwork solver for #DataAssimilation of ICE shelves written in #JAX: 🔗Docs: diffice-jax.readthedocs.io/e… 📄Peer-reviewed by JOSS #OpenSource: joss.theoj.org/papers/10.211…

Today & tomorrow, we're having the annual #EXPECT (EXplaining and PrEdiCTing the #weather & #climate) General Assembly (GA). Today, I gave a talk at the EXPECT GA, entitled "Soil-moisture #DataAssimilation in Europe". #LandSurfaceModeling @Expect_Project @UniofReading

Hi all, I'm happy to share my most recent publication: A statistical package for computing precision covariance matrices via modified Cholesky decomposition, tailored for atmospheric models like ERA5 and MPAS - doi.org/10.1016/j.softx.2025… #Elsevier #DataAssimilation #OpenSource

On the SIAM News blog, @LucasBottcher_, Tom Chou, and Maria D’Orsogna present a #DataAssimilation approach that provides near-term forecasts of U.S. drug #overdose fatalities and captures local overdose trends to inform prevention efforts. Learn more: siam.org/publications/siam-n…

The April issue of SIAM News is now available! In this special issue on #ComputationalScience and #engineering, Sebastian Reich focuses on one aspect of the #DigitalTwin paradigm: the synergy between #DataAssimilation and #OptimalControl. Check it out! siam.org/publications/siam-n…

✨Next SASIP Webinar on Friday, March 28 at 4 pm CET! This month, Yue Ying from the NERSC will explore Novel #DataAssimilation Techniques to Improve #SeaIce Deformation Features ❄️ Abstract and registration 👉 forms.fillout.com/t/qjdC37ty…

🌍 How can Data Assimilation (DA) and Machine Learning (ML) work together to improve Earth system state predictions? 🔎 The first article of #InfoGeo dives deep into this question! 📄 Full research here: doi.org/10.1016/j.infgeo.202… #DataAssimilation #MachineLearning #EarthScience

What does JULES stand for? Research scientist @McGuirePatrick at @UniofReading shares insights on how #DataAssimilation & #JULES are enhancing climate science! Discover how his research improves soil moisture predictions in the European region 👉bit.ly/3X6sNq2

In this seminar I go over 7 years of work on our streamflow prediction system combining WRF-Hydro and DART, showcasing its performance across 3 flood scenarios & sharing key insights 🌊💡#DataAssimilation #FloodPrediction @WRFHydro @NCAR_CISL @NCAR_RAL youtube.com/watch?v=ftOeqfUJ…

📡 Check out the programme for our workshop on #DataAssimilation: initial conditions and beyond ➡️ ecmwfevents.com/i/data-assim… Registration is extended to 3 January. To register and find out more about the event ➡️ events.ecmwf.int/e/DataAssim… #OneECMWF

National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (@ncmrwfmoes), Noida, celebrated 30 years of operational Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) in India and 150 years of the India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) on November 19, 2024. The event was graced by esteemed dignitaries, including Chief Guest Dr M Ravichandran (@Ravi_MoES), Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, alongside Dr Parwinder Maini, Scientific Secretary, Office of the Principal Scientific Advisor to the Government of India (@PrinSciAdvGoI); Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General of Meteorology, IMD; Dr Michael R Farrar, Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (@NOAA), USA; Dr David Walters, Associate Director, UK Met Office (@metofficeUK); Mr Karma Dupchu, Director, National Centre for Hydrology & Meteorology, Bhutan (BIMSTEC); Dr V S Prasad (@VSPrasa78215502), Head, NCMRWF; and Dr Ashish Routray, Scientist F, NCMRWF. Discussions focused on emerging trends in observation and #DataAssimilation, future roadmaps for modeling, user-focused #NWP products and #HybridForecasting methods. #NumericalWeatherPredictions #NCMRWF #30YearsofNWP #150YearsofIMD #MoES #EarthSciences @ESSO_INCOIS @MoesNiot @Indiametdept @ncs_earthquake @CentreCoastal @esso_ncess @iitmpune @cmlre_kochi @ncaor_goa @ncmrwfmoes

Just published: How #DataAssimilation enhances #HydroJules soil moisture estimates—dive into the details in my latest blog!

Are you interested in #DataAssimilation, #NumericalModeling and #AI for the #AtmosphericSciences? My research group is seeking new graduate students to join us in Fall 2025. Learn more about the details below.

🌍At #EMS24 our researcher Francesco Uboldi presented our research on an automatic #observation quality control system for non-hydrostatic simulations. The work with high-res #WRF model data enhances #forecast accuracy. #DataAssimilation @MAGDA_Project 👉doi.org/10.5194/ems2024-262