Part two
Title: The Unimaginable Disaster: The Aswan High Dam’s Potential Collapse or Bombing as Foreseen by US Studies
The Aswan High Dam: a potential target for attack
However, the Aswan High Dam is also a potential target for attack, as it is a vital strategic asset for Egypt, and a source of tension with some of its neighbors and rivals. The dam has been the subject of several threats and plots, both from within and outside Egypt, since its construction.
In 1979, a group of Egyptian Islamic militants attempted to blow up the dam, but were arrested by the security forces before they could execute their plan. In 1981, Sadat was assassinated by another group of Islamic extremists, who opposed his peace treaty with Israel and his economic policies. Some of the conspirators had also planned to attack the dam, but were foiled by the authorities.
In 1997, a Sudanese opposition group, backed by Egypt, claimed to have bombed the Merowe Dam in northern Sudan, which was under construction at the time, as a retaliation for Sudan's support for Islamic militants in Egypt. The Sudanese government denied the claim, and accused Egypt of trying to sabotage its development projects.
In 2015, the Islamic State group, which had established a branch in Sinai, threatened to target the Aswan High Dam, as well as other strategic facilities in Egypt, as part of its campaign to overthrow the government and establish a caliphate. The group claimed responsibility for several attacks on security forces, churches, and tourists in Sinai and other parts of Egypt, but did not manage to reach the dam.
In 2019, a report by the British newspaper The Telegraph revealed that Israel had considered bombing the Aswan High Dam in 1973, during the Yom Kippur War, as a last resort option, if Egypt had advanced further into the Sinai Peninsula. The report cited a former Israeli official, who said that the plan was discussed by the Israeli cabinet, but was rejected by Prime Minister Golda Meir, who feared the international backlash and the humanitarian consequences of such an attack.
The Aswan High Dam: a scenario of catastrophe.
A bomb attack or a dam failure could have catastrophic consequences for Egypt and the downstream countries, especially for Cairo, which depends on the Nile for its water supply, agriculture, and electricity. According to a simulation study by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, conducted in 1979, a dam breach would release about 55 billion cubic meters of water in the first 10 hours, creating a flood wave that would reach Cairo in 21 hours, and inundate most of the Nile valley. The study predicted that the dam failure would cause millions of deaths, massive displacement, and severe damage to infrastructure, agriculture and the environment.
The study assumed that the dam would fail due to a large earthquake, which could cause cracks or ruptures in the dam's structure, or a landslide, which could trigger a wave that would overtop the dam. However, the study also acknowledged that the dam could fail due to other causes, such as sabotage, war, or poor maintenance. The study also noted that the dam's design and construction had taken into account the possibility of such events, and had incorporated safety features and contingency plans to prevent or mitigate the damage.
The study estimated that the flood wave would have a height of 20 meters at the dam site, and would gradually decrease as it moved downstream, reaching 14 meters at Luxor, 9 meters at Asyut, 5 meters at Minya, and 3 meters at Cairo. The study also estimated that the flood wave would have a speed of 43 kilometers per hour at the dam site, and would slow down as it encountered resistance from the terrain, the vegetation, and the existing structures, reaching 25 kilometers per hour at Cairo. The study also estimated that the flood wave would have a width of 40 kilometers at the dam site, and would widen as it spread across the valley, reaching 100 kilometers at Cairo.
The study predicted that the flood wave would cause widespread destruction and devastation along its path, sweeping away everything in its way, such as houses, bridges, roads, railways, power lines, irrigation canals, crops, and livestock. The study predicted that the flood wave would also cause extensive erosion and sedimentation, altering the topography and the hydrology of the valley. The study predicted that the flood wave would also cause severe environmental impacts, such as water pollution, soil salinization, loss of biodiversity, and increased disease transmission.
The study projected that the flood wave would affect about 30 million people, who lived in the Nile valley at the time, and would cause about 10 million deaths, mostly due to drowning, injuries, and exposure. The study projected that the flood wave would also cause about 20 million people to be displaced, either temporarily or permanently, and would create a massive humanitarian crisis, requiring emergency relief and assistance.
The study concluded that the high dam damage would be a disaster for the people of Cairo and the whole of Egypt, and would also have serious repercussions for the regional and international stability and security. The study recommended that the dam should be protected from any possible attacks or accidents, and that the countries involved should cooperate to ensure the peaceful and equitable management of the Nile water resources. The study also suggested that alternative sources of water and energy should be explored and developed, to reduce the dependence and vulnerability of Egypt and the downstream countries on the dam. The study warned that the scenario of a dam failure, although unlikely, should not be ignored or underestimated, as it could have unimaginable consequences for millions of people and the environment. Simulation of the Effects of the Aswan High Dam Failure, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1979.
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