Excited to announce the SemiAnalysis Teardown Engineering & Evaluation Lab (STEEL) We have been building a state-of-the-art teardown lab in Oregon with $10s of millions Capex being spent capable of analyzing the world’s most advanced and important chips and process technologies over the last year and half. We have already generated revenue on advanced datacenter chip teardowns. This is a bit of inconvenient timing for TechInsights as they are private equity owned and currently being sold while having enjoyed virtually no credible competition for decades. This has led to TechInsights underinvesting in CAPEX. SemiAnalysis exceeds TechInsights in revenue despite no venture or private equity ownership and being founded only 6 years ago. Because we have no external investors and are founder led, we move faster, build faster, and we can release client chip teardowns for free regularly, while focusing on datacenter for our major clients. STEEL has a state of the art fleet of tools. We are less than a year and half into the journey here, but our goal is to be number 1 just like we are in AI, Datacenter, and Semiconductor market data, consulting, and technically analysis. Our largest customers which, include all of the hyperscalers and world's largest semiconductor companies, are excited for us to shake up the market.

Much of the tech community is exposing themselves for not understanding the absolute basics of political theory The USG has a monopoly on the use of force. A private citizen cannot speak the way Dario speaks. He will have to change his messaging or be destroyed

Around the time gpt4 came out, I said that gpt4 level models would run on consumer hardware. And they do, now. In fact, better. And now I will also say: mythos / gpt 5.5 pro models will run on consumer hardware. Prepare accordingly

For them to do this on SpaceX IPO day is incredibly disrespectful

I know everyone hated this because stocks should go up in a straight line forever, but it’s actually a good thing the market has had some weakness and a chance to revisit the 50 day. Building up the wall of worry to take it down is an integral part of continued bull markets.

Ballmer retardmaxxed his shares (did nothing, didn't sell) and ended up way richer than Gates.

The scary part about Anthorpic's Fable nerf is not that it refuses to answer biology or cryptography. It's that it foreshadows what's coming. A world where a couple companies decide what you can and cannot do. They're building a new ruling class and you're not in it...

Just FYI download every open weight model (especially the abliterated version) when it comes out and store it on a secure hard drive. We're not always going to have such luxuries.

finance really brings out the worst in people. when that article about @leopoldasch came out my feed was all people deriding the idea that someone young with a tech background should have been able to raise all that money. 13F comes out and it’s all people saying they’ll blow up (because people don’t understand how options are reported on filings). meanwhile they’ve generated about a billion dollars for investors ytd. i, for one, think it’s sick and hope he continues to succeed.

One thing I learned at SpaceX. Good ideas aren’t worth anything. Lots of people have good ideas, and they are willing to share them. What actually is valuable is the implementation. If you can make a good idea a reality, that is the secret sauce. There were several times when someone felt guilty about getting credit for implementing someone else’s good idea. Good ideas aren’t worth took 5 seconds to spout out, implementation took 6 months of 12 hour work days and blood sweat and tears. Full credit always goes to the implementer

i'm obsessed with AI DIY projects. my favorite one right now is this broccoli farmer in hokkaido, japan using Codex to run his 100-hectare farm this guy never studied agriculture, never inherited land, started out as a civil servant. but he wanted his farm to run better, and instead of paying an engineering firm he couldn't afford, he just built the tools himself. here's what he's built on his own: > remote control of his greenhouse vents from a chat app, wired up with an esp32 board, a motor driver, and cloudflare workers > a bot that checks each greenhouse's temperature and opens the vents when it gets too hot > satellite crop-health data laid over a map of his own fields > an airtable base linking his plots, tasks, materials, and sensors > wiring diagrams of his electrical panels, generated from a photo stuff like this used to be locked behind machinery and engineers only the big agribusinesses could pay for. but this legend just breezed past all of it with a laptop and Codex lol

Fun fact you can buy B12 injectable on Amazon. All the reviews are like "my cow loved this for his B12 deficiency and has more energy at the office"

Crazy to me people dont see Google issuing equity and then doing this insane deal for more compute from SpaceX as a huge flashing bull market sign. They are telling you demand is off the charts and bottlenecks are real with billions of their own money as proof

Here's my assessment of what's going on inside Goldman and Morgan Stanley right about now around the $SPCX IPO. 1) The math isn't mathing for institutional investors to participate at $135/sh in the size they need them to. Research is being heavily pressured by banking to get more aggressive on their estimates/teach-in materials to try to make valuation make sense. It's not working. The biggest brass across the firms are now getting involved - Jamie Dimon & David Solomon are taking meetings - it's all hands on deck. 2) Accordingly, the bookrunners are increasing the % of the deal allocated to retail to 30%. Remember, it's the banks buying the shares from the company and if their largest institutional relationships aren't biting in the size they need them to - they have to find demand somewhere else they're going to be on the hook for the delta between $135/sh and wherever the stock trades multiplied by the number of shares left in inventory. Find the demand - whoever and whatever it takes. 3) Banks are also pressuring the index providers to create forced buying as well across a ton of indices and their associated products. This has worked in some places and hasn't in others (credit to S&P for their backbone here). This will create a large amount of demand but I don't know the math here relative to the float coming public - if anyone has seen smart math here please share. All and all, this is going to be a fascinating IPO to watch but I have next to zero interest in participating - I suspect I'm in the majority here.

Pod bros message me about astera all the time asking me why I’m bullish. It has nothing to do with copper, optics, retimers nada. That is their biggest business today so it makes sense why people anchor on that but I see what’s coming next. The engineering problem Astera is solving with CXL & the stuff around it is extremely valuable. People think CUDA is a moat, lol not even close and you see it with ASIC-X. The real moat is the next step & Nvidia is losing badly there.

Most experiments fail, and negative results rarely get published. This means LLMs are unaware of the outcomes of most experiments.

Putting that in-house OCS to good use.

Where do I buy them?

Korean society: so how are people going to receive old age pensions if everyone in the country is old? Korean government: well, we, uh Americans coming around the corner with a literal truckload of money: Are you guys the people who make RAM?