Joined September 2017
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Pinned Tweet
27 Oct 2023
"Dad, what was it like longing bonds into a global sovereign debt crisis?"
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$STRC investors looking around nervously "We'll get back to par right guys? No one is jumping ship right?"
ALL SET: the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF $BITA is launching TOMORROW (tue). Confirmed by Nasdaq. Also, the ETF will target 15-25% annual yield while trying to capture at least 70% of bitcoin's upside in process.
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ITT: A buncha trapped investors asking "Wen back to $100" ...not looking good for them in the after hours pricing ☠️
Semi-monthly dividends on $STRC start now. The first record date under the new cadence is June 30.
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Rob retweeted
Americans realizing they spent $75 billion fighting Iran, then another $300 billion rebuilding Iran, just to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that was already open before the war started
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Their own marketing "ev mNAV" slop breaks the most fundamental rule of finance 101: The shareholders’ equity number is a company’s total assets minus its total liabilities. Equity = Assets - Liabilities Therefore, they've somehow hoodwinked their investors to believe that: Equity = Assets Liabilities It is the most public facepalm of epic proportions regarding basic finance I've ever witnessed lmao.
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Rob retweeted
Jun 14
This is nearly as absurd as community adjusted EBITDA
BPS measures Bitcoin per common share before senior claims. CEBE BPS measures Bitcoin per common share after senior claims. CEBE is the conservative risk metric. BPS is the common equity growth metric. BTC Yield measures BPS execution.
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Rob retweeted
Jun 14
The ~0.81x market cap to net BTC holdings (after debt & preferred) is the more relevant multiple for common shareholder accretion/dilution. It directly compares issuance price to common equity’s NAV claim. Below 1x, selling common to buy BTC at par dilutes existing holders’ NAV per share. mNAV at 1.20x (EV/BTC) captures the levered enterprise view but isn’t the precise test for common equity issuance.
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Rob retweeted
Fascinating watching a viral meme decay. Before Saylor blew up the balance sheet you could explain this promote in two words: "Bitcoin vacuum"
BPS measures Bitcoin per common share before senior claims. CEBE BPS measures Bitcoin per common share after senior claims. CEBE is the conservative risk metric. BPS is the common equity growth metric. BTC Yield measures BPS execution.
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Absolutely mind boggling that @Strategy is still levering up. They're selling $MSTR shares that are worth 80 cents on the dollar to buy $1 dollar bills. Relative to its BTC holdings after accounting for debt and preferred equity liabilities, MSTR common trades at ~0.8x NAV. This behaviors tells me the market's message needs to get louder for it to be understood.
Still adding dots.
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$STRC 30D vol went from 1.7% → 17% in 2 months. This, kids, is called getting egg on your face. Or eating humble pie. Or putting your foot in your mouth. Today's lesson on idioms courtesy of @Strategy, who continue to make unforced errors for our educational benefit.
Replying to @saylor
$STRC volatility is in the money market range. Everything else isn’t.
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$STRC has never traded this low into an ex-dividend date (tomorrow). Highly unlikely a 25 bps dividend rate increase fixes this next month, and maybe not even 50 bps at this pace. Meanwhile the hubris has not been dented. Pain can only end when the orange dot tweets do.
“Steady”…not sure the market agrees but let’s see. For the month of June it appears Strategy will be prioritizing MSTR owners over STRC owners.
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Jun 14
I'm genuinely concerned about Strategy's position right now. Trading at 84% of its Bitcoin value, every option available to them makes things worse: - Issue stock → dilutes BTC per share - Issue more prefs → adds to a $10.7B cash obligation - Sell Bitcoin → panic the market & drive price lower - Suspend dividends → retail holders flee There is no clean exit.
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Things are so bad they have to push a residual liquidation value metric now that the leveraged Bitcoin exposure stuff no longer works lmao
BPS measures Bitcoin per common share before senior claims. CEBE BPS measures Bitcoin per common share after senior claims. CEBE is the conservative risk metric. BPS is the common equity growth metric. BTC Yield measures BPS execution.
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If you just give us a few percent more of your money, we could finally fix the worsening education, homelessness and crime caused by our own terrible policies… Please bro… just a few percent more. One last tax. I swear bro. Then I’m done.
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Never. Give. Up.

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“I said to YOU to never sell your Bitcoin. I never said that THE COMPANY wouldn’t sell its Bitcoin.” Jesus Christ.

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-Anchor Protocol (Terra): 19.5% - 20% APY (Algorithmic stablecoin collapse) -Celsius Network: Up to 18% APY (Rehypothecated balance sheet black hole) -Pillow Fund: Up to 14% APY (Automated management unwind) -Vauld, Hodlnaut, & Zipmex: Up to 12% - 14% APY (Contagion dominoes) -Voyager Digital: Up to 12% APY (Unsecured credit defaults) -BlockFi: Up to 9.25% APY (Shadow banking liquidity crunch) -Gemini Earn / Genesis: Up to 7.4% APY (Institutional loan desk freeze) Same candy, different cycle. Surely, it will turn out differently this time with $STRC offering 11.5%, right? In the words of the great @HodlMagoo: "Don't be a retard." (@comic is excluded)
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I saw all the Saylor cult followers posting as if $STRC was some genius revolutionary piece of financial engineering from Saylor. It is not. Wall Street has already run a very similar playbook with Auction Rate Preferred Securities (ARPS). They are very similar: 1) Perpetual capital for the issuer. 2) Variable yield for investors. 3) A security expected to stay near par. 4) If demand weakens, just raise the yield. For years, they worked well, and then they got absolutely smoked in 2008. And just like $MSTR and $STRC, the issuers of the ARPS mostly survived. The assets mostly survived. The investors are who got hurt the most. Why? Because the buyer base disappeared overnight. ARPS proved that a higher yield doesn't guarantee a $100 price. Once holders of it start asking "Who is buying this from me?" instead of "What's the yield?", the market will implode far far below par. It is not as if there is any collateral pledged that would create a floor on price in this scenario. $STRC pumpers always point to liquidation preference, seniority, and even Strategy's Bitcoin as protection. Those things don't create liquidity. They don't guarantee a $100 market price. The lesson $STRC holders are going to learn is the same lesson ARPS holders learned. That they are absorbing the risk of a liquidity vaccum.
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Rob retweeted
"I promise not to sell the Bitcoin." - Michael Saylor That might be actual fraud right there.
Replying to @Pledditor @saylor
Saylor in february this year:
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