The Definitive Edition: Analysis of Every Single Intel Fab Across the US, Ireland, Israel, and Malaysia The Lord of the Fabs and the Return of the King open.substack.com/pub/alexin…

China continues its maritime incursions in waters around Taiwan, as Taiwan Coast Guard was in another round of close encounter with two Chinese coast guard vessels in waters off Taiwan’s Southeast Exclusive Economic Zone. The two Chinese vessels remained in waters off Taiwan’s southeastern offshore islands for more than 7 hours and the latest episode comes after consecutive days of Chinese maritime incursion near both Taiwan-controlled Itu Aba in the disputed South China Sea and waters off Taiwan’s east coast. Overall the intensified Chinese maritime incursions represent an overall uptick of China’s attempt to undermine Taiwan’s sovereignty and impose Beijing’s territorial claim and jurisdiction over these waters. setn.com/m/ampnews.aspx?News…

Obviously, it’s because of the significant 18A ramp up from Q2 and the start for shipping of Wildcat Lake, which can truly replace Raptor Lake as OEM loves that part so much. In contrast, AMD will continue to focus on server CPU and keep prioritizing capacity for it.

GSA Euro Executive Forum keynote EU Chips 2.0, let's get something brewing Europe. Packaging hub? $INTC

I believe there is an event coming where 1) Intel guides CAPEX higher 2) Announces Ohio acceleration 3) New shell announcements 4) A financing plan of a shell lease back or Chips Act lending or a capital raise When this happens. You can price 2030/2031 earnings up alot $INTC

Great technology needs great design enablement. Our collaboration with @Synopsys is helping customers accelerate adoption of Intel 18A and Intel 14A with production-ready PDKs that simplify design, verification, and manufacturing readiness. ms.spr.ly/6014v9mm8 #IntelFoundry #Semiconductors

If you believe in space data centers and Elon's ability to standup earth based data centers Intel is a cheap way to get a slice of his ability to fund CAPEX via TeraFab $INTC

If the initial phase of SpaceX TeraFab is 160K WSPM like SemiAnalysis models in their recent post for 14A 160K*36K*12=$69B If Intel gets a 15% license fee its $10B per year. If it's 25% fee, it's $17B per year If 10B per year trades at 25x. Intel ex TeraFab trades at $250B

Yield Engineer, Integration Engineer, Device Engineer, Module Engineer

And the CEO of Intel needs no further explanation. 😎

If you read past the paywall They have baseline of 110K 18A and 40K 14A, Intel's own needs and Apple Then for next 50K chunk (14A) it's TSMC spillover and 2nd sourcing. Then possibly another 50K chunk of 'peer scale' Then they model TeraFab 160K sperate, which is a JV model

Strong semiconductor supply chains are built through investment, innovation, and local ecosystems. Hear Naga Chandrasekaran's perspective on strengthening manufacturing resiliency in the U.S. in this @BusinessInsider feature. Watch here: ms.spr.ly/6018v9gme #IntelFoundry

SemiAnalysis quite close to my model They have Intel ramping 18A capacity to 110K WSPM (Arizona F38.2 Israel F28 deramped) Have 14A capacity at 40K (Ohio alone). Not mentioned but Intel 3 Ireland Intel 3 F38.1 Israel is 100K They call for 60K-100K WSPM of 14A with raise

My favorite idea is still the US government owning the shell so they finance the building and Intel leases it out

Whatever has to be done for Intel to start building atleast 3 more shells Personally I'd like 7 more Still a giant plot of land in Michigan when SanDisk pulled out

Before any bears come out B of A is not assuming $INTC reclaims server CPU dominance. It expects Intel’s server CPU value share to so slightly decline to about 24% by CY2030 from about 41% in CY2025 Yet Intel CPU revenue still grows because the total server CPU TAM expands sharply. So, the thesis again is not Intel wins share. It is the pie gets so much bigger that Intel can lose share and still grow materially. Double upgrade is not about more CPUs It is about Bank of America now values Intel as a fully integrated IDM by CY2030 with EPS power of about $6.24

18A going into 2029 is very tight, Intel's new wafer supply would be 14A. If Google throws Samsung a bone they'll get more memory. Intel will make more money if Google gets more memory supply from this.

Beijing has escalated its grey zone operations against Taiwan by sending two Chinese government vessels into the restricted waters around Taiwan-controlled island, Itu Aba, for the first time. The Chinese vessels remained in the restricted waters for 15 minutes and made two course changes when it came into close range with Taiwan’s coast guard vessels. taiwannews.com.tw/news/63811…

Taiwan says it won't tolerate Chinese patrols, vows expulsions reut.rs/4vdMc7t reut.rs/4vdMc7t

Dario doesn't sugar coat Chinese militarism "When I see Russia's invasion of Ukraine, when I see the risk of China invading Taiwan, it makes me worry that we're facing a resurgent authoritarian bloc" Good chance IMO of a Intel x Anthropic ASIC. Shared values and supply diversity

Perhaps at some point the way we have been doing lithography becomes concord-y.