Warum sollte ich mein Geld in Bitcoin investieren, wenn ich ohne große Risiken bereits 5 % erhalte?
Genau das nennt man die Risikoprämie.
Aber wann erreichen wir einen Wendepunkt?
👇👇👇
Die Antwort ‼️
BTC is facing the highest bond yields in its history.
🔴 The U.S. Bond market has never presented such unfavorable conditions since BTC was created.
True, policy rates have already been higher and so has the DXY, but today we have a 60% probability of seeing a rate hike before the end of the year.
—💡This means the cost of money is very high and liquidity is severely constrained.
Investors cannot have the absolute confidence that would allow them to take on more risk, and this weighs on the crypto market. —
As we can see on this chart, rises in these yields have often coincided with deteriorating conditions and therefore a slowdown in BTC.
👉 Currently, with long-term rates (US30Y and 10Y) oscillating between 4.5% and 5%, we are reaching a pivot point.
The risk premium becomes less attractive for exposure to risk assets compared to the returns offered by these long-term rates, or even shorter-term ones.
Nevertheless, better visibility is needed for things to change, for investors to regain confidence in holding debt, which will mechanically push rates lower and ultimately bring the risk premium back to more attractive levels in favor of risk assets like Bitcoin.
⚠️ We are talking here about a long timeframe, this mechanism will take months to play out and will be dependent on Trump’s decisions and the resulting economic outlook.