MACRO UPDATE ๐คฏ A QUIET SHIFT IN
#TREASURY DEMAND - WITH GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES.
#Chinaโs holdings of U.S.
#Treasuries falling to their lowest level since 2008.
The important point isnโt the viral narrative that China is โdumpingโ bonds - that framing is usually too simple.
What matters is the direction and the persistence of the trend.
For more than a decade, China was one of the largest marginal buyers of U.S. government debt.
That role has been steadily fading. And because the move has been gradual, itโs exactly the kind of
#capitalflows regime shift that gets underestimated in real time.
Capital flows donโt announce turning points. They erode first.
And this matters because the U.S. Treasury market sits at the center of the global financial system.
Changes in who absorbs supply feed into
#rates,
#USD dynamics,
#liquidity conditions, and global
#riskpricing - often with long lags.
๐๐ ๐จ๐ง๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ข๐ ๐ ๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ๐ญ๐จ๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ๐๐ซ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐ญ๐๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐๐๐ค, ๐ฐ๐ก๐จ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ๐๐ซ ๐ ๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฐ๐๐ซ๐?
Does the clearing price become higher yields, a weaker
#dollar, or both?
And if investors wait for โstress headlinesโ as confirmation, do they end up adjusting exposures too late?
This is why I watch
#pricebehavior, participation, and
#structural shifts - not just headlines.
๐ (Do not forget to subscribe to my newsletter - link in my profile
@MacroMornings)