I've been searching for an analogy to help a lay audience understand CO2 and temperature ...
Imagine you're in a very cold place, like Antarctica or the Arctic, sitting on a block of ice in your swim suit. Your body is radiating heat, which means you're getting cold and starting to shiver.
Someone comes along and gives you an 850 fill-power winter goosedown sleeping bag. You crawl in, and your body stops losing heat and you warm up. You're maybe not as warm as you could be, but you're 90 percent of the way to a normal temperature. As the temperature reaches equilibrium, the amount of heat your body gives off escapes from the sleeping bag, but it is delayed, which is what keeps you warm. If you had a source of food and could eliminate waste, you could stay like this for a long time.
Now someone comes along and gives you an even larger 850 fill-power sleeping bag, so you can fit yourself and the first bag inside that one. This delays even more heat from escaping, and now you're toasty warm inside. Back to normal.
Now someone comes with an even bigger sleeping bag and puts you into that one. You're looking like a giant potato. Are you a bit warmer? Maybe a bit, but you can't really tell. Perhaps you could measure it with sensitive instruments. At equilibrium, still, the outer bag is radiating the same amount of heat your body is giving off, but the bags delay the escape of the heat, trapping enough to keep you warm but not enough to keep the heat in over a long period of time.
Now someone gives you an even larger sleeping bag! It's so big that five people could fit in it, and it now goes over you and the other three bags. Are you warmer now? No, not really. You can't measure it.
For every added sleeping bag on top of the previous bags, you don't get any warmer. You could have 100 bags and be bigger than a stadium, you could be surrounded by all the goose down in Hungary, but you're not really any warmer. It might delay the heat from escaping even longer, but still, at equilibrium, your body is losing heat and that heat is making its way out eventually.
What really happens: they all act as one giant sleeping bag. You're still in equilibrium. There's a smooth gradient running from your skin to the outer fabric of the outer bag. No matter how many sleeping bags, the heat cannot build up and eventually run away, cause tipping points, or raise temperatures inside the first bag. After the third bag, the temperature rise inside is too small to measure, even with sensitive instruments.
This is why geese are perfectly comfortable in winter, and why just one parka keeps us warm, even when it's very cold. The colder it is, the more insulation you need, but insulation is very efficient.
Now suppose you're Earth.
The first sleeping bag is equivalent to the first 50 parts per million CO2.
The second sleeping bag takes you to 100 PPM.
By 150 PPM, the CO2 has finally done as much as it can. Adding more CO2 does increase the delay of the heat escaping, but it doesn't measurably affect temperature. All the CO2 you can add to the atmosphere from there won't raise temperature one bit.
And, in fact, Earth has never had less than 150 PPM. From this base, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has never had any effect on temperature -- there have been times when the poles had tropical climates and times when Earth was mostly covered in ice, and CO2 didn't correlate, because Earth has always had the first 2 heavy sleeping bags that have kept the temperature warm enough for life to emerge and thrive. Thank goodness for those first 2 sleeping bags of CO2.
On top of this, water vapor can make the earth MUCH warmer, because water vapor acts as an insulator at many different wavelengths (not to mention clouds), while CO2 only insulates in a very narrow range, so you can sleep outside in Jakarta all year round. But in places with very little water vapor, more CO2 does not drive more temperature change.
If you want the technical details and the physics, see my article on the Schwarzschild equation, based on the work of William Happer.
Now is not different. The earth's temperature is rising as it has many many times, at a similar rate, and it is driven by the sun, by water vapor, and by heat transport from the tropics to the poles. Don't believe people who show you scary graphs -- their goal is to scare you to think there is an emergency, but a) their data is manipulated, and b) graphs don't show causation. Temperatures have been rising very slowly since 1800, as we come out of the Little Ice Age. Everything you see in the press is natural variance and the heat-island effect.
To understand Earth's complex climate system, see
climatecurious.com
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